Bu gün "Moody's Investors Service" (Moody's), istiqrazlar daxil milyardlarla borcu olan SOCAR-ın reytinqini "Ba1" səviyyəsindən "Ba2" səviyyəsinə endirib.

Bu barədə "Marja"ya "Moody's"dən bildirilib.

ƏHƏMİYYƏTLİ KREDİT RİSKİ SƏVİYYƏSİ

 
Moody's-ın Uzunmüddətli Korporativ Öhdəliyi Reytinqinin ikinci səviyyəsi olan "Ba2" borcun "əhəmiyyətli riskə" məruz qala biləcəyini əks etdirir. Riskli öhdəliklər spekulyativdir. Yəni, SOCAR borclarını qaytara bilməyə bilər.

Reytinqlərin azaldılması Azərbaycanın  fiskal və iqtisadi gücünün zəifləməsini əks etdirir. Neft qiymətlərinin aşağı olması, istehsalın azalması, bank sisteminin zəif  qalması iqtisadi artımı məhdudlaşdırır. Eyni zamanda dövlət borcu çox yüksək səviyyədədir. Bütün bunlar hökumətin SOCAR-a kömək edə bilməyəcəyi ehtimalını artırır.

Bundan əvvəl Moody's, Azərbaycan hökumətinin və "Cənub Qaz Dəhlizi" QSC-nin  reytinqini "Ba1" səviyyəsindən "Ba2" səviyyəsinə endirmişdi.

Moody's downgrades SOCAR's rating to Ba2; stable outlook



London, 24 August 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has today
downgraded to Ba2 from Ba1 the corporate family rating (CFR), to Ba2-PD
from Ba1-PD the probability of default rating (PDR) and to Ba2 from Ba1
the senior unsecured notes rating of State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan
Republic (SOCAR). Concurrently, Moody's has lowered SOCAR's baseline
credit assessment (BCA) to b1 from ba3. The outlook on the ratings is
stable.

"Our decision to downgrade SOCAR follows the recent downgrade of the
sovereign, to which the company is linked, as well as its weaker
standalone credit profile on the back of growing debt and elevated
capital spending," says Denis Perevezentsev, Vice President - Senior
Credit Officer at Moody's.

"However, SOCAR's rating, which is on par with the sovereign, continues
to benefit from its status of a 100% state-owned entity, strategically
important for the Republic of Azerbaijan, with a high level of state
support."

Today's rating action concludes the review for downgrade of SOCAR's
ratings initiated by Moody's on 23 May 2017 and follows Moody's
downgrade of Azerbaijan's government bond rating to Ba2 from Ba1 with a
stable outlook on 18 August 2017. For additional information on the
sovereign rating action, please refer to the related announcement:
https://www.moodys.com/research/--PR_370180

RATINGS RATIONALE

Given that SOCAR is 100% state-owned, Moody's determines its CFR by
applying the methodology for government-related issuers (GRIs). SOCAR's
Ba2 CFR incorporates: (1) a BCA, which indicates the company's standalone
credit strength, of b1; (2) the Ba2 local-currency debt rating of the
government of Azerbaijan, with a stable outlook; (3) very high default
dependence between the state and the company; and (4) Moody's
assumptions of a high level of support from the state in case of need.

SOCAR's Ba2 rating takes into account: (1) the key role that the company
plays in the oil and gas sector of Azerbaijan and the national economy;
(2) Moody's estimates of SOCAR's stable oil and gas production in
2017-18; (3) robust liquidity profile underpinned by substantial cash
balances and comfortable debt maturity schedule; and (4) close linkages
with the Azerbaijan's government, which has accumulated substantial
reserves and should be in a position to provide financial support to the
company if needed.

The rating also reflects Moody's conservative view on (1) potential
challenges in maintaining stable production in the longer term; (2) the
company's expanding trading operations, which negatively impact its
operating cash flow and leverage; and (3) the sensitivity of the
company's metrics to oil prices and local currency exchange rate, which
are likely to remain volatile over the next 12-18 months.

Moody's decision to lower SOCAR's BCA to b1 from ba3 mainly reflects (1)
weaker cash flow generation and growing debt amid expanded trading
operations and manat depreciation; (2) the increase in capital spending
in 2016, which is likely to remain elevated and will continue to put
pressure on the company's free cash flows in 2017-18; and (3) exposure to
Southern Gas Corridor CJSC (SGC) projects, which, although not likely to
have material impact on SOCAR as per the current funding structure of
SGC, could potentially lead to higher debt levels if external funding is
not raised for SGC on favourable terms.

Despite the significant and long-lasting weakening of Azerbaijan's fiscal
and economic strength, Moody's assumptions regarding the government's
willingness and ability to provide extraordinary support to SOCAR remain
unchanged. Azerbaijan consistently renders support to SOCAR through
adjustments to regulated prices, direct equity injections, financing of
key investment projects and provision of loans by the Ministry of Finance.

The line between the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), state budget
and SOCAR is blurred. SOCAR transfers proceeds from the sales of its
pro-rata share of profit oil from its joint ventures and associates,
mainly Azeri Chirag Guneshli (ACG) to SOFAZ (annual transfers of about
AZN8 billion - AZN9 billion) and gets transfers from SOFAZ for capital
spending and borrowings from the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of
Azerbaijan. During 2016 the government of Azerbaijan contributed AZN921
million to the charter capital of SOCAR, which offset the company's
contributions to the charter capital of South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) and
SGC during the same period. There was about AZN0.9 billion borrowings
from the Ministry of Finance outstanding as of end-June 2017. Such
interlinks between the sovereign and SOCAR underscore the strategic
importance of SOCAR for Azerbaijan as the largest employer, taxpayer and
exporter. Moody's expects that these interdependencies and regular
transfers from SOFAZ will help SOCAR to minimise its direct exposure to
the projects of economic and geopolitical importance for the Republic of
Azerbaijan (e.g. SCP, TAP, TANAP), where the company has non-controlling
stakes.

SOCAR's ratings and outlook also reflect the fact that its liquidity has
not been materially affected by the restructuring of International Bank
of Azerbaijan (IBA, Caa1 bank deposits, Positive(m)) which used to hold a
significant share of SOCAR's cash and which is likely to continue
providing a liquidity line to the company once IBA's debt restructuring
is complete. SOCAR keeps sizeable cash and deposits at PASHA Bank OJSC
and Kapital Bank OJSC (Ba3 negative). Moody's assumes the company's cash
reserves will continue to be fully accessible, as they are one of the
major funding sources of the company's investments and debt service and
underpin its assessment of SOCAR's good liquidity profile.

RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK

The stable outlook on SOCAR's ratings is in line with the stable outlook
for the sovereign rating and reflects Moody's view that company-specific
credit factors, including operating and financial performance, market
position and liquidity, will remain commensurate with its ratings on a
sustainable basis.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN

Moody's could upgrade SOCAR's ratings if it were to upgrade Azerbaijan's
sovereign rating, if accompanied by corresponding improvement in the
company-specific factors, including its operating and financial
performance and leverage provided there are no negative changes in
Moody's assessment of state support and/or liquidity.

Moody's could downgrade the ratings if (1) there is a downgrade of
Azerbaijan's sovereign rating; (2) SOCAR's standalone financial profile
deteriorates further, such that RCF/net debt falls consistently below
mid-teens and EBIT/interest expense remains below 3.0x on a sustained
basis; (3) there is evidence that the government's capacity and
willingness to provide support to SOCAR is becoming more limited; (4) the
state imposes measures that would seriously impair SOCAR's credit
profile; and/or (5) SOCAR's liquidity profile deteriorates materially.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The methodologies used in these ratings were Global Integrated Oil & Gas
Industry published in October 2016, and Government-Related Issuers
published in October 2014. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on
www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic is a 100% state-owned,
vertically integrated national oil and gas company headquartered in Baku,
Azerbaijan. The company has a monopoly position supplying oil and gas
products to the domestic market and is the state's official representative
in all oil and gas projects in Azerbaijan, including all international
consortia. In addition to Azerbaijan, SOCAR operates in Turkey, United
Arab Emirates, Georgia, Switzerland, Romania, Ukraine and other
countries. For the year ended 31 December 2016, SOCAR reported revenue of
AZN51.9 billion ($32.5 billion) and its Moody's-adjusted EBITDA amounted
to AZN4.0 billion ($2.5 billion). In 2016, SOCAR produced 7.5 million
tonnes of oil and 6.3 billion cubic meters of gas.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this
announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each
rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or
category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are
derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this
announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the
credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each
particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit
ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional
ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in
relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a
definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance
of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have
not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner
that would have affected the rating. For further information please see
the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on
www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if
applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated
entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.