Beynəlxalq kredit reytinqi agentliyi "Moody's" "Xalq Bank"ın uzunmüddətli yerli və xarici valyutada bank depozitlərinin reytinqini "B1" səviyyəsində təsdiqləyib və bu reytinqlər üzrə proqnozu "stabil"dən "müsbət"ə yüksəldib.

Bu barədə Marja.az Agentliyə istinadən xəbər verir.

Həmçinin "Xalq Bank"ın Kredit ödəmə və Tənzimlənmiş kredit ödəmə qabiliyyəti reytinqlərini "b2" səviyyəsində təsdiqləyib.

Qeyd edilib ki, reytinqlərin "b2" səviyyəsində təsdiqlənməsi aktivlərin keyfiyyətinin yaxşılaşdırılmasını, kredit konsentrasiyalarının azaldılmasını və sağlam kapital adekvatlığının davamlılığını əks etdirir. 

Depozit reytinqi üzrə proqnozun "sabit"dən "müsbət"ə dəyişdirilməsi - "Moody's"in "Xalq Bank"ın kredit profilinin, aktiv keyfiyyətinin və gəlirliliyinin növbəti 12-18 ay ərzində daha da yaxşılaşacağına dair gözləntilərini əks etdirir.

Son üç il ərzində "Xalq Bank" problemli kreditlərin payını əhəmiyyətli dərəcədə azaldıb və köhnə korporativ portfelinin qismən ödənişlər və silinməsi sayəsində ehtiyatlarını yaxşılaşdırıb. Nəticədə problemli kreditlərin nisbəti 2020-ci ilin sonundakı 12,8%-dən 2022-ci ilin sonuna 4,4%-ə enib. 

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Moody's takes rating actions on two Azerbaijan banks

London, December 11, 2023 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today affirmed International Bank of Azerbaijan's (IBA) Ba3 long-term local and foreign currency bank deposit ratings and changed the outlook on these ratings to positive from stable. Concurrently, Moody's affirmed the bank's b1 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA, Not Prime (NP) short-term local and foreign currency bank deposit ratings, the bank's Ba2/NP long-term and short-term local and foreign currency Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs) and the Ba2(cr)/NP(cr) long-term and short-term Counterparty Risk Assessments (CR Assessments).

Concurrently, Moody's affirmed OJSC XALQ BANK's (XALQ BANK) B1 long-term local and foreign currency bank deposit ratings and changed the outlook on these ratings to positive from stable. At the same time, Moody's affirmed the bank's b2 BCA and Adjusted BCA, NP short-term local and foreign currency bank deposit ratings, the bank's Ba3/NP long-term and short-term local and foreign currency CRRs and the Ba3(cr)/NP(cr) long-term and short-term CR Assessments.

RATINGS RATIONALE

-- IBA

Moody's affirmed IBA's BCA and Adjusted BCA at b1 and its long-term deposit ratings at Ba3 and changed the outlook on the long-term deposit ratings to positive from stable.

The affirmation of the bank's BCA and Adjusted BCA at b1 reflects a sustained track record of improving asset quality and profitability, the bank's strong capital adequacy and highly liquid balance sheet with limited asset risk.

The affirmation of the bank's local and foreign currency long-term bank deposit ratings at Ba3 reflects Moody's assumption of a high support probability to the bank from the Government of Azerbaijan (Ba1 stable).

The change to positive from stable in the outlook on the long-term bank deposit ratings reflects Moody's expectation that IBA's standalone credit profile, and in particular its asset quality and profitability, will continue to improve in the next 12-18 months.

IBA's asset quality has been improving in recent years with problem loans gradually decreasing to 4.6% of gross loans as of the end of 2022 from 7.7% in 2020 supported by improved debt servicing capacity of large borrowers and write-offs. Moody's expects the problem loan ratio will decline further and remain below 4% in the next 12-18 months. Coverage of problem loans by loan loss reserves remained strong at around 100%.

IBA has consistently reported robust capital metrics and Moody's expects the bank's tangible common equity (TCE) to risk-weighted assets (RWA) ratio to remain above 22% in the next 12-18 months supported by internal capital generation and slower asset growth.

IBA's profitability improved in 2022, supported by stronger net interest margin (NIM) and trading gain from FX operations, and will likely improve further in the next 12-18 months amid stronger NIM and ongoing lending growth. Moody's expects that IBA's return on tangible assets will increase to around 2.6%-2.8% in the next 12-18 months from around 2% in 2022 and 1.7% in 2021.

Moody's expects the bank's liquidity to remain high in the next 12-18 months. IBA carries a large volume of liquid assets, with a ratio of liquid banking assets to tangible banking assets at 59% as of end of June 2023 and has a low reliance on market funds with customer accounts formed 87.5% of total non-equity funding and were dominated by corporate deposits.

IBA's Ba3 long-term deposit ratings are based on the bank's BCA of b1 and incorporate one notch of government support uplift reflecting Moody's assessment of a high probability of government support for the bank in the event of need. This assumption is based on IBA's 96.4% state ownership and its dominant position as the largest bank in Azerbaijan.

-- OJSC XALQ BANK

Moody's affirmed XALQ BANK's BCA and Adjusted BCA at b2 and its long-term deposit ratings at B1 and changed the outlook on the long-term deposit ratings to positive from stable.

The affirmation of the bank's BCA and Adjusted BCA at b2 reflects a sustained track record of improving asset quality, reducing credit concentrations and sound capital adequacy. The affirmation of the long- and short-term CRRs at Ba3/NP and long- and short-term CR Assessments at Ba3(cr)/NP(cr) follows the affirmation of long- and short-term deposit ratings at B1/NP.

The change to positive from stable in the outlook on the long-term bank deposit ratings reflects Moody's expectation that XALQ BANK's standalone credit profile, and in particular its asset quality and profitability, will further improve in the next 12-18 months.

Over the past three years the bank has materially decreased the share of its problem loans and improved provisioning coverage thanks to partial repayments and write-offs of its legacy corporate portfolio. As a result, the problem loan ratio has declined to 4.4% as of year-end 2022 from 12.8% at the end of 2020. Meanwhile, the problem coverage ratio improved to 102% at the end of 2022 from 55% two year earlier. Moody's expects XALQ BANK's problem loan ratio will not exceed 4%-5% by the end of 2024.

In the rating agency's view, the current loan portfolio is of better credit quality than 2-3 years ago thanks to lower credit concentrations and lower exposure to foreign currency denominated loans. The share of the twenty largest borrowers decreased to 213% of Tier 1 equity at the end of 2022 from 341% at the end of 2019. Concurrently, the share of foreign currency loans fell to 44% of total as of Q3 2023 from 76% at the end of 2019.

Robust capital adequacy remains one of XALQ BANK's key credit strengths, providing a buffer against asset-quality weakness. As of year-end 2022 the bank reported TCE/RWA ratio at 18.9%. Moody's expects a moderate expansion of the bank's loan book in the next 12-18 months amid modest economic growth expected at 1-2% in 2023-2024. In rating agency's view XALQ BANK's TCE/RWA ratio will not fall below 17% in the next 12-18 months.

In 2022, XALQ BANK reported net income of AZN29 million, which translated into modest return on tangible assets of 1.1%, at par with 2021 results. Meanwhile, the bank's net interest margin (NIM) improved to 4.0% in 2022 from 3.3% in 2021. As the bank resumes lending growth, the rating agency expect its NIM to widen, supporting already-historically strong financial results. Moody's expects the bank's return on tangible assets to strengthen to 1.5-1.7% in the next 12-18 months amid stronger NIM and modest credit costs.

The funding profile of the bank has remained broadly unchanged over recent years with customer accounts amounting to 87% of liabilities as of year-end 2022. Customer deposits concentration has somewhat improved but remains very high with the 17 largest depositors accounting for 68% of total deposits at the end of 2022. Such concentration risks are mitigated by a stable customer base and well-established relationships with the largest customers. The share of foreign currency deposits fell to 68% of total as of year-end 2022 from 80% as of year-end 2019. The bank's liquidity cushion at 26% of total assets as of Q3 2023 as per Moody's estimates provides sufficient cover for immediate liquidity needs given relatively stable funding base.

XALQ BANK's long-term deposit ratings of B1 are based on the bank's BCA of b2 and Moody's assessment of a moderate probability of government support for the bank in the event of need, reflecting its remarkable market shares by loans and deposits at 8.3% and 6.4%, respectively, as of mid-2023. This support provides one notch of rating uplift to XALQ BANK's long-term deposit ratings.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Further strengthening of IBA's lending business, leading to improvement in its profitability along with a strengthening of asset-quality, could lead to an upgrade of the bank's BCA and deposit ratings. The rating outlook could be changed to stable if there were signs of erosion of the bank's financial fundamentals, such as asset quality and profitability, which are not currently expected.

Sustained improvements in XALQ BANK's profitability, single-name credit concentrations, and de-dollarisation of its loan portfolio, coupled with the maintenance of strong capital and liquidity levels, would exert upward pressure on the bank's BCA and deposit ratings. The outlook on XALQ BANK's long-term bank deposit ratings could be changed to stable if the bank fails to improve recurring revenues or contain credit risk stemming from high concentrations. Concurrently, IBA and XALQ BANK's deposit ratings could be downgraded, if the Government of Azerbaijan appeared less likely to continue its support to the banks, which is not currently anticipated.